Despite steady fuel price increases over the last month, the situation could have been worse had it not been for the intervention of the Uganda government, Ruth Nankabirwa, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, told a parliamentary committee last week.

“If it wasn’t for our continuous engagement with oil marketing companies (OMCs), the prices would be as high as UGX 8,000 (a litre) because Ugandans are fond of using (such) opportunities to make obscene profits,” Nankabirwa said.

“Even yesterday but one, the Permanent Secretary engaged them. They were giving all sorts of reasons to increase pump prices, but we said, ‘yes, we are aware of the forex exchange, but you must match your increase with the percentage of the increase in forex exchange (rates),’” she added.

Her ministry continues to consult with the OMCs as it monitors the logistical bottlenecks that have affected the movement of products following the outbreak of the USA-Israeli war on Iran on February 28.

“We are watching the speed at which the prices are raising; at least we’ve contained them – it would have been a different situation,” Nankabirwa noted, as she appeared before the Environment and Natural Resources Committee, to present the Ministerial Policy Statement (MPS) for consideration for next financial year’s national budget (FY2026/27).

Currently, Stabex, an OMC is selling petrol and diesel at UGX 5,290 and UGX 5,090 a litre respectively; an increase by 9.55% (from UGX 4,829) and 17.04% (UGX 4,349), as of March 3, 2026.

In the meantime, the Uganda shilling has depreciated by 4% to 5% from the around UGX 3,599 since February 28 at the start of the war to just over UGX 3,750.

It is this depreciation – attributed to increased demand for foreign exchange (USD), reduced offshore investor inflows, and generally tighter liquidity in the local market – which the government of Uganda blames for the fuel price increases and not fuel supply deficiencies.

A collage of photos tracking the fuel price changes at the Stabex pump station in Mutungo, Kampala

In a joint statement dated March 30, 2026, the Energy Ministry and the Uganda National Oil Company Limited (UNOC) – the state-owned enterprise charged with managing Uganda’s commercial interests in the oil and gas sector – had indicated that the country’s fuel supplies were still assured despite the war affecting the passage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

The waterway, one of the world’s most critical energy routes as it carries 20% of global oil (plus large quantities of cooking and heating gas), is effectively closed to most commercial traffic by Iran – with daily transit plummeting from 138 vessels to as few as six per day.

The disruption has triggered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

As a result, brent crude prices surged by over 50% in the first month of the conflict, peaking at $126 per barrel. As of today, prices are hovering around $100–$110 per barrel amid extreme market uncertainty.

Uganda has, however, avoided sharp fuel price spikes so far, with the Minister attributing this to the government’s foresight in passing the Petroleum Supply Amendment Act 2023 that made UNOC the sole importer of petroleum products, sourcing them directly from global giant, Vitol Bahrain, and then supplying them to OMCs at steady rates – effectively replacing middlemen.

The deal, which became operational in July 2024, was aimed at reducing supply disruptions, lower pump prices, and build national fuel reserves, with Vitol providing financing and logistical support.

“I must thank you, Chairman (of the committee), for having accepted to amend the Act to allow UNOC to be the sole importer. This puts Uganda in a better position than even Kenya, yet we are landlocked. They are not landlocked, but they are more worried than ourselves,” Nankabirwa said.

April, May supplies

Echoing the joint statement, the Minister also told the committee that as of March 27, 2026, Uganda’s fuel stock for distribution across the country stood at 81 million litres of petrol; 80 million litres of diesel; and about 18.5 million litres of Jet A-1.

These volumes translate to approximately 22 days of stock cover for petrol, 23 days of stock cover for diesel, and 30 days of stock cover for Jet A-1.

In addition, the country is expecting additional supplies in the coming weeks through the ports of Mombasa in Kenya and the Tanzanian ports of Tanga, Dar-es-Salaam and Mtwara.

These include 195 million litres of petrol (to last 52 days), 155 million litres of diesel (for 44 days), and 24 million litres of Jet A-1 (39 days of cover) – meaning that the country’s fuel needs were certain until the end of May 2026, at least.

“The guaranteed supply is facilitated by the strong presence of UNOC’s supply partner (Vitol) in alternative supply sources in the world, away from the currently troubled Middle East. While the supply remains stable, the Ministry working together with UNOC will continue to monitor the impact of other parameters, including forex exchange and international prices, on the resulting pump price,” the statement added.

It remains to be seen whether the situation will hold beyond May, however, as the Middle East war persists – with experts warning that the global fuel supply is entering a critical phase as the “buffer” of oil and refined products that was in transit or stored before the conflict began is now largely exhausted.

A ship at Mombasa laden with Vitol fuel supplies

Currently, the absence of new, consistent shipments from the Gulf has led to a significant gap between global demand and supply; with panic buying underway in some countries, while others like the Philippines have declared a national energy emergency due to the disruptions.

Uganda’s current daily fuel products consumption stands at 8 million liters, with stock kept in several places including the Jinja Storage Terminal (with a 30 million litres capacity), Lake Victoria Logistics (or Mahathi Infra) with 70 million liters storage capacity and the Nakasongola fuel reserves maintained by the Ministry of Defence.

OMCs maintain 10 days’ stock; picking their orders from Kenya Petroleum Company (KPC) in Eldoret to replenish their tanks.

Long-term, the government through UNOC plans to expand its storage capacity by building a 320-million-litre facitlty, to be named the Kampala Storage Terminal (KST), at Namwabula, Mpigi.