United States of American-led strikes on Iran could trigger a spike in fuel prices in Uganda as oil shipping companies seek new trade routes away from the Strait of Hormuz – the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian ocean.
On Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran with a motive of decapitating the ruling government and forcing a change of leadership. Iran retaliated by hitting key American bases across the Middle East, and also gave indication that it intended to close the strait in what could disrupt the fuel supply system.
Irene Bateebe, the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, told this website that luckily for Uganda it already has contingency plans in place.
“We do not expect any major interruptions due to the arrangements we put in place prior. The Uganda National Oil Company’s (UNOC) supply partner boasts a strong global network that supports sourcing of products from other destinations such as India and Singapore that don’t have to go through the Gulf,” she said.
Bateebe, PS, Energy Ministry
UNOC, which manages the government’s commercial interests in the petroleum industry, serves as Uganda’s sole importer and wholesaler of petroleum products under the Petroleum Supply (Amendment) Act 2023, supplying fuel in bulk to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs); who then distribute it to the market.
In early 2024 it entered a five-year deal with Vitol Bahrain E.C, with the latter – the world’s leading trader of energy – guaranteeing fuel supplies, including buffer stocks to Uganda.
Between July 2024 and December 2025, UNOC imported about 3 billion litres of combined petroleum products – including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and kerosene – averaging close to 230 million litres per month.
This helped stabilize pump prices from the highs of UGX 6,000 – 6,500 per litre just over two years ago, to an average range of UGX 4,500 – 4,800.
Ugandans will be hoping these rates are maintained amidst the uncertainties.