Ugandans have been advised to regulate their travel and embrace alternatives such as car-pooling as the country braces for another round of fuel price increases linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Irene Bateebe, the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, says the government expects pump prices to continue rising moderately as Uganda begins importing fuel purchased after the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States.

“We want to encourage you to regulate your movements and even car-pool so that we traverse this period and get back to normal operations in the coming months,” she said, last week.

Her comments echoed concerns first raised by outgoing Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa last month, who had noted that Uganda had temporarily been cushioned because the country was still consuming fuel procured before the conflict escalated.

Her warning that the effects of the higher international prices would begin reflecting at Ugandan pump stations from May onwards is now materializing, with Uganda transitioning into receiving fuel cargoes ordered after the conflict erupted.

Costly Post-conflict Fuel

“As we end May and enter June, we are starting to lift product post the conflict,” said Bateebe.

The imported fuel is now being priced according to prevailing international benchmarks, freight costs and insurance expenses associated with navigating volatile global supply routes, she added.

Currently, Stabex, an oil marketing company (OMC) is selling petrol and diesel at UGX 6,130 and UGX 6,150 a litre respectively; up from UGX 4,829 and UGX 4,349, as of March 3, 2026.

Global crude oil prices surged from about $65 per barrel in February to nearly $120 per barrel in March following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The price continues to hover around the $100 level.

In Uganda, exchange rate pressures had worsened the situation, Bateebe added, noting that the Uganda shilling had weakened from about UGX 3,600 to UGX 3,800 against the US dollar shortly after the conflict began.

Despite growing public concern over rising transport and commodity costs, government says it will not subsidize fuel prices.

Bateebe argued that subsidies would not be sustainable given the uncertain duration of the Middle East conflict.

Instead, government says it will continue monitoring OMCs to ensure that pump prices only reflect legitimate external cost pressures rather than excessive profit margins.

Bateebe stressed that authorities are closely tracking the prices at which the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) imports fuel through its partnership with Vitol.

“We know the price UNOC is picking this product at from Vitol, so we are able to monitor and ensure that the pump price is reflective of these external factors and not a tendency for OMCs to increase their margins beyond the expected limit,” she said.

Even so, the government sought to calm fears of runaway fuel prices, insisting Uganda is unlikely to enter the UGX 7,000-per-litre range.

“It’s going to be a moderate increment – kept within acceptable limits,” Bateebe said.

Uganda experienced supply strains last month due to panic buying and cross-border demand from neighbouring countries where fuel prices were higher, including from Kenya, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

However, authorities, working with Resident District Commissioners (RDCs) and security agencies, have since intensified monitoring at border points including Busia, Malaba, Adjumani, Kasese, Kabale and Kisoro.

The government also dismissed widespread claims of hoarding by fuel dealers, although officials admitted isolated attempts may have occurred.

Reverend Justaf Frank Tukwasibwe, the Commissioner for Petroleum Supply at the ministry, said inspections conducted across the country had not uncovered systematic hoarding.

Nonetheless, he warned that any dealers found deliberately withholding fuel could face sanctions, including revocation of operating licences.

Reverend Tukwasibwe (L) and Bateebe

Anthony Ogalo, General Manager, Sustainable Energies and Petroleum Association (SEPA), hailed the government’s interventions that have subsequently ensured security of supply – including the UNOC-Vitol deal and anti-hoarding operations, amongst others.

Beyond managing the immediate crisis, government says it is accelerating major petroleum infrastructure investments intended to shield Uganda from future global supply shocks, including the expansion of the Jinja Storage Terminal (JST) from 30 million litres to 40 million litres.

The planned refinery (with Alpha MBM Investments) is seen as the long-term answer to recurring fuel supply disruptions and global price volatility.

Touch-and-go

While the United States President Donald Trump recently announced a possible signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran to end the war, exactly when this will happen remains unknown.

The draft proposal includes clauses to open up the Strait of Hormuz, where an average of 129 vessels passed through daily before the conflict.

That number has since dropped to as few as 20 vessels, effectively keeping 20% of the world’s global daily oil supply bottlenecked.

Whereas Bateebe was positive that an end to the fuel crisis was eminent, analysts warn that even when a peace agreement is formally reached, global energy supply will not snap back immediately.

This is because there will be a need to clear Iranian naval mines at the Strait of Hormuz, repair damaged refineries and related infrastructure in the Gulf plus clearing the backlog of unloaded supplies.

As such, high fuel prices will likely persist for months afterwards.