In a statement released yesterday, the government of Uganda sought to reassure the country that the war in the Middle East pitting Iran against the combined US-Israeli forces would have minimal, if any, effect on imports of petroleum products into the country – echoing our Saturday, February 28, 2026 story.

The same statement, signed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development and the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), went ahead to say that “scheduled fuel cargo deliveries for March 2026 remain on course with contingency plans to avert any immediate impact.”

However, despite these reassurances, various Ugandans per several social media posts are planning contingency plans of their own, from purchasing full tanks of fuel for their cars to parking them altogether.

These concerns are not unfounded.

This is especially after a commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and that any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be set “ablaze” – as reported by Al Jazeera.

At least five tankers have been damaged, two personnel killed and about 150 ships stranded around the strait, which separates Iran and Oman, the report added.

The waterway is one of the world’s most critical energy routes as it carries one-fifth of the oil consumed globally as well as large quantities of gas. A significant amount of Uganda’s fuel products are said to pass through the strait, as well, shipped through by Vitol Bahrain, UNOC’s supply partner.

Relatedly, other reports yesterday indicated that significant drone and missile strikes had left critical energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia (oil refinery) and Qatar (LNG refinery) damaged, leading to immediate shutdowns.

These incidents have seen oil prices rise above $79.40 per barrel on Monday, after hitting $73 per barrel on Friday in the lead-up to Saturday’s attacks on Iran. Similarly, European natural gas prices surged more than 40% to the highest since 2023 amid the Qatar-LNG uncertainty.

The fallout

While Vitol sources its fuel from multiple places including Singapore and India, as Irene Bateebe, the Permanent Secretary at the Energy Ministry told us, the fact that many other countries including China depend largely on the strait for their fuel, means that there is going to be a heightened demand wherever Uganda turns to.

Meaning the reduced fuel supplies will need to meet the same global demand. This will without doubt increase the prices.

Rerouting fuel tankers to avoid the strait will also mean longer delivery times and additional costs.

Meanwhile UNOC’s Jinja Storage Terminal (JST), can only hold 30 million litres of refined petroleum products in storage – only lasting about four to five days; considering that Uganda’s daily fuel consumption is approximately 6.5 million to 8 million litres.

Since 2024, UNOC, has been Uganda’s sole importer and wholesaler of petroleum products, supplying fuel in bulk to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs); who then distribute it to the market.

It has stabilized pump prices from the highs of UGX 6,000 – 6,500 per litre just over two years ago, to an average range of UGX 4,500 – 4,800.

With the heightened situation in the Middle East, the rates are likely to be adjusted upwards soon. Some of the OMCs we contacted declined to say, by how much though; only referring us to the government statement.